Evaluation of the Impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs on Vietnam Iron and Steel Trade Flows: Gravity Model Analysis
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Abstract
Abstract: This paper analyzes the impacts of ASEAN+3 FTAs onVietnam iron and steel trade flows. In this respect, a gravity model is applied to the panel data covering 27 top trading partners of Vietnam from 2001 to 2012. The paper findings show positive impact of ACFTA and VJEPA on increasing imports of iron and steel into Vietnam while AKFTA, AFTA and VJEPA have positive effects on their export. AJCEP and AFTA are concluded to have little impact on either imports or exports.
Keywords: Vietnam, ASEAN+3, steel, gravity model.References
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[2] Pöyhönen P., “A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archive 90 (1963), 93-100.
[3] Anderson, J. E., “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation”, American Economic Review 69 (1979), 106-116.
[4] Deardorff, V. A., “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?”, The Regionalization of the World Economy, Jeffrey A. Frankel, ed., University of Chicago Press, 1998, 7-28.
[5] Urata, Shujiro, and Misa Okabe, “The Impacts of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Flows: An Application of the Gravity Model Approach”, Free Trade Agreements in the Asia Pacific 11: 195, 2010.
[6] Bhattacharya, S. K. and Bhattacharyay B. N., “Gains and Losses of India-China Trade cooperation - A Gravity Model Impact Analysis”, CESifo Working Paper No. 1970 (2007).
[7] Nguyen Tien Dung, “Impacts of ASEAN - South Korea free trade agreement on Vietnam trade”, VNU Journal of Science - Economics and Business 27 (2011), 219-231.
[8] Nguyen Anh Thu, “Assessing the Impact of Vietnam’s Integration under AFTA and VJEPA on Vietnam’s Trade Flows, Gravity Model Approach”, Yokohama Journal of Social Sciences 17 (2012) 2, 137-148.
[9] VP Bank, Vietnam Steel Industry report, VP Bank Securities, 2013.
MPI, “General assessment of Vietnam's socio-economic situation after 5 years accession to the WTO”, 2013, Hanoi.