Vu Thanh Huong, Pham Minh Tuyet

Main Article Content

Abstract

This paper assesses the potential impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) on Vietnam's imports of automobiles from the EU by adopting the Software on Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (SMART) based on two scenarios. The simulation results reveal that the EVFTA would result in a significant increase in Vietnam's automobile imports from the EU, implying that the EU would be still among the biggest car sources for Vietnam in the upcoming time. However, when Vietnam also extends its coverage of tariff elimination to ASEAN+3, the reduction in Vietnam’s automobile imports from the EU would be considerable. Another important finding is that an uneven distribution in Vietnam’s additional automobile imports from the EU by nation, automobile group and automobile product would occur when the EVFTA comes into effect. In both scenarios, trade creation effects are higher than trade diversion effects and hence, the EVFTA could raise the welfare of Vietnam. Based on these results, the paper ends by drawing out some implications for the Vietnamese government and domestic enterprises to be better prepared for the upcoming ambitious EVFTA.


Keywords


Vietnam, EU, EVFTA, ASEAN+3, automobiles, SMART


References


[1] Quoc Hung, “In 2015, the automobile sales hit record”, Saigon Economics Online, 11/11/2016, http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/140962/Nam-2015-luong-o-to-tieu-thu-tang-ky-luc.html
[2] Duc Huy, “The Vietnamese consumers bought cars at a record rate in 2016”, VnExpress, 12/1/2017, http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/oto-xe-may/nguoi-viet-mua-oto-nhieu-ky-luc-trong-2016-3526923.html
[3] Vu Thanh Huong, “Assessing potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s pharmaceutical imports from the EU: An application of SMART analysis”, SpringerPlus, 5 (2016a), 1-22.
[4] Vu Thanh Huong, Assessing the possibility to bring about economic benefits of the European – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, Hanoi, Vietnam:Vietnam National Univeristy, 2016b.
[5] Tu Thuy Anh, Le Minh Ngoc, “Challenges for Vietnam in integrating comprehensively into ASEAN+3: A sector analyis”, Journal of Economics and Development, 212 (February 2015).
[6] Karingi, S., Lang, R., Oulmane, N., Perez, R., Jallab, M. S., & Hammouda, H. B., “Economics and Welfare impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements”, African Trade Policy Center, 10 (2005), 1-102.
[7] Karingi, S., Oulmane, N., & Lang, R., “Assessment of the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union”, African Trade Policy Center, 29 (2005).
[8] Ahmed, Shasil, “India-ASEAN trade agreement: A sectoral analysis”, SSRN Working Paper 1698849 (2010).
[9] Amjadi, Azita, Schuler, Philip, Kuwahara, Hiroaki, & Quadros, Susanne, WITS: User’s manual, Washington DC.: UNCTAD, UNSD, WTO, WB, 2011.
[10] Cassing, James, Trewin, Ray, Vanzetti, David, Truong Dinh Tuyen, Nguyen Anh Duong, Le Quang Lan, & Le Trieu Dzung, Impact assessment of Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam’s Economy, Hanoi, Vietnam: MUTRAP, 2010.
[11] Baker, Paul, Vanzetti, David, & Pham, Lan Huong, Sustainable Impact Assessment: EU-Vietnam FTA, Hanoi, Vietnam: MUTRAP IV, 2014.
[12] Veeramani, C., & Saini, G. D., Impact of ASEAN-India Preferential Trade Agreement on Plantation Commodities: A Simulation Analysis, Maharashira, India: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, 2010.
[13] Vanzetti, D., Pham, L. H., & Baker, P., “The European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: Sustainable Impact Assessment”, Paper presented at the conference Assessing the social, economic and environmental impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, Hanoi, 2014.

Keywords: Vietnam, EU, EVFTA, ASEAN 3, automobiles, SMART

References

[1] Quoc Hung, “In 2015, the automobile sales hit record”, Saigon Economics Online, 11/11/2016, http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/140962/Nam-2015-luong-o-to-tieu-thu-tang-ky-luc.html
[2] Duc Huy, “The Vietnamese consumers bought cars at a record rate in 2016”, VnExpress, 12/1/2017, http://vnexpress.net/tin-tuc/oto-xe-may/nguoi-viet-mua-oto-nhieu-ky-luc-trong-2016-3526923.html
[3] Vu Thanh Huong, “Assessing potential impacts of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s pharmaceutical imports from the EU: An application of SMART analysis”, SpringerPlus, 5 (2016a), 1-22.
[4] Vu Thanh Huong, Assessing the possibility to bring about economic benefits of the European – Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, Hanoi, Vietnam:Vietnam National Univeristy, 2016b.
[5] Tu Thuy Anh, Le Minh Ngoc, “Challenges for Vietnam in integrating comprehensively into ASEAN+3: A sector analyis”, Journal of Economics and Development, 212 (February 2015).
[6] Karingi, S., Lang, R., Oulmane, N., Perez, R., Jallab, M. S., & Hammouda, H. B., “Economics and Welfare impacts of the EU-Africa Economic Partnership Agreements”, African Trade Policy Center, 10 (2005), 1-102.
[7] Karingi, S., Oulmane, N., & Lang, R., “Assessment of the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union”, African Trade Policy Center, 29 (2005).
[8] Ahmed, Shasil, “India-ASEAN trade agreement: A sectoral analysis”, SSRN Working Paper 1698849 (2010).
[9] Amjadi, Azita, Schuler, Philip, Kuwahara, Hiroaki, & Quadros, Susanne, WITS: User’s manual, Washington DC.: UNCTAD, UNSD, WTO, WB, 2011.
[10] Cassing, James, Trewin, Ray, Vanzetti, David, Truong Dinh Tuyen, Nguyen Anh Duong, Le Quang Lan, & Le Trieu Dzung, Impact assessment of Free Trade Agreement on Vietnam’s Economy, Hanoi, Vietnam: MUTRAP, 2010.
[11] Baker, Paul, Vanzetti, David, & Pham, Lan Huong, Sustainable Impact Assessment: EU-Vietnam FTA, Hanoi, Vietnam: MUTRAP IV, 2014.
[12] Veeramani, C., & Saini, G. D., Impact of ASEAN-India Preferential Trade Agreement on Plantation Commodities: A Simulation Analysis, Maharashira, India: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, 2010.
[13] Vanzetti, D., Pham, L. H., & Baker, P., “The European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement: Sustainable Impact Assessment”, Paper presented at the conference Assessing the social, economic and environmental impacts of the European - Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, Hanoi, 2014.