The Aging Population in Vietnam: Trend and Policy
Main Article Content
Abstract
This paper analyzes the aging population in Vietnam and the international experience, thereby assessing the potential challenges to provide new viewpoints and corresponding policies in the coming years. The aging population in Vietnam evolves with a rapid growth rate, even with a higher speed than other economies in the same income group, but is not associated with improved health care services for this particular group of the population. This can result in a lower economic growth rate, an unbalanced social development, and an aged but not rich society. In the future, the aging population needs to be considered as a phenomenon that is harmonious with nature and that goes along with economic development. Thus, some policies are proposed to deal with the aging population including an inclusive income insurance system for aged people, a sound economic policy architecture, and a social consensus on the aging population.
Keywords:
Aging population, forecasting, adaptation, Vietnam.*
References
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[4] The Vietnam Communist Party, “Resolution No.21-NQ/TW issued on 25/10/2017 of 12th Central Committee of The Communist Party on The Population Policy on New Context,” 2017, https://tulieuvankien.dangcongsan.vn/van-kien-tu-lieu-ve-dang/hoi-nghi-bch-trung-uong/khoa-xii/nghi-quyet-so-21-nqtw-ngay-25102017-hoi-nghi-lan-thu-sau-ban-chap-hanh-trung-uong-dang-khoa-xii-ve-cong-tac-dan-so-trong-571 (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[5] Weil, David N., “Population Aging,” National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w12147 (2006), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[6] The Vietnam General Statistic Office, “National Survey on Population and Housing 2019,” 2020, https://gso.gov.vn (Accessed on March 20th, 2021).
[7] Gordon, Robert J., “Secular Stagnation: A Supply-side View,” The American Economic Review, 105 (5) (2015) 54-59.
[8] Coeurdacier, Nicolas, Stéphane Guibaud, and Keyu Jin, “Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy,” The American Economic Review, 105 (9) (2015) 2838-81.
[9] Eichengreen, Barry, “Secular Stagnation: The Long View,” The American Economic Review, 105 (5) (2015) 66-70.
[10] Hansen, Alvin H., “Economic Progress and Declining Population Growth,” The American Economic Review, 29 (1) (1939) 1-15.
[11] Eggertsson, Gauti B., and Neil R. Mehrotra, “A Model of Secular Stagnation,” National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w20574 (2014), National Bureau of Economic Research Inc.
[12] Teulings, Coen and Baldwin, Richard., “Introduction,” in: Baldwin, Richard, and Coen Teulings (Eds.), Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures, Centre for Economic Policy Research Inc, London, 2014.
[13] Jones, Charles I., “Sources of US Economic Growth in a World of Ideas,” The American Economic Review, 92 (1) (2002) 220-239.
[14] Lancia, Francesco, and Giovanni Prarolo, “A Politico-Economic Model of Aging, Technology Adoption and Growth,” Journal of Population Economics, 25 (3) (2012) 989-1018.
[15] Gruber, Jonathan, and David Wise, “An International Perspective on Policies for an Aging Society,” National Bureau of Economic Research, No. w8103 (2001), National Bureau of Economic Research Inc.
[16] De La Croix, David, and Philippe Michel, A Theory of Economic Growth: Dynamics and Policy in Overlapping Generations, Cambridge University Press, 2002.
[17] Diamond, Peter A., “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model,” The American Economic Review, 55 (5) (1965) 1126-1150.
[18] Gradstein, Mark, and Michael Kaganovich, “Aging Population and Education Finance,” Journal of Public Economics, 88 (12) (2004) 2469-2485.
[19] Ngoc Linh, “Aging Population and Challenges for Vietnam,” Figures and Events Review, 08/2020, http://consosukien.vn/gia-hoa-dan-so-va-thach-thuc-doi-voi-viet-nam.htm (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[20] Nguyen Quoc Anh, “From Fast Aging Population in Vietnam: Opportunities and Challenges,” Propaganda Journal, 03/2020, http://tuyengiao.vn/dan-so-va-phat-trien/tu-xu-huong-gia-hoa-dan-so-nhanh-o-viet-nam-co-hoi-va-thach-thuc-127050 (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[21] Truong Thi Ngoc Lan and Pham Thi Giang, “Adaption to Aging Population in Vietnam,” State Management Review, 11/2020, https://www.quanlynhanuoc.vn/2020/11/26/thich-ung-voi-gia-hoa-dan-so-o-viet-nam/ (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[22] The Vietnam General Statistic Office and United Nations’ Fund for Population in Vietnam, “Forecasting Population in Vietnam 2014-2049,” Vietnam News Agency Publishing House, Hanoi, 11/2016.
[23] Dinh Nam, “In 2021: All Aged People Have Social Security,” Online Government Newspaper, 01/2021, http://baochinhphu.vn/Thoi-su/Nam-2021-Tat-ca-nguoi-cao-tuoi-deu-co-BHYT/419886.vgp (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[24] Gia Han, “Conference on Aging Population and Health Care Issue in Vietnam,” Online Newspaper of General Office for Population and Family Planning, 12/2019, http://gopfp.gov.vn/tin-chi-tiet/-/chi-tiet/hoi-thao-gia-hoa-dan-so-va-suc-khoe-nguoi-cao-tuoi-nghien-cuu-doc-va-vai-tro-cong-tac-vien-dan-so-trong-cssk-nguoi-cao-tuoi-tai-cong-%C4%91ong-9407-2.html (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[25] Giang Thanh Long and Do Thi Thu, “Social Security Policy for Aging Policy in Vietnam,” Journal of Law Construction Research, 02/2019, http://www.lapphap.vn/Pages/TinTuc/206834/Chinh-sach-an-sinh-xa-hoi-doi-voi-xu-huong-gia-hoa-dan-so-o-Viet-Nam.html (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[26] Nguyen Thi Linh Giang, “Implementing the Policy for Old People Currently,” State Management Review, 12/2020, https://www.quanlynhanuoc.vn/2020/12/21/thuc-hien-chinh-sach-cho-nguoi-cao-tuoi-o-viet-nam-hien-nay/ (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[27] Tran Tho Dat, “Is Aged Population a Real Burden for an Economy?,” Finance Review Online, 10/2019, https://tapchitaichinh.vn/nghien-cuu-trao-doi/dan-so-gia-hoa-co-thuc-su-la-ganh-nang-cho-nen-kinh-te-314466.html (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
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[29] Solow, Robert M., “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70 (1) (1956) 65-94.
[30] Minh, Nguyen Thi, “Dynamic Demographics and Economic Growth in Vietnam,” Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 14 (4) (2009) 389-398.
[31] Giang, Long Thanh, and Cuong Viet Nguyen, “The Aging Population and Sustainability of the Pension Scheme: Simulations of Policy Options for Vietnam,” Journal of Economics and Development, 19 (3) (2017) 40-51.
[32] General Statistics Office of Vietnam, and United Nations Population Fund, Forecasting Population in Vietnam Over 2014-2049, The Vietnam News Publishing House, Hanoi, 2016.
[33] Agénor, Pierre-Richard, and Otaviano Canuto, “Middle-Income Growth Traps,” Research in Economics, 69 (4) (2015) 641-660.
[34] Sebastian Eckart and Vu Viet Ngoan, “How Can Vietnam Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?,” Brookings Future Development, 2019, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/05/16/how-can-vietnam-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/ (Accessed March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
[35] Trinh Thi Thu Hien, “Aging Population Trend in Our Country and Health Care, Employment of Aged People,” Communist Review, 09/2019, https://tapchicongsan.org.vn/chuong-trinh-muc-tieu-y-te-dan-so/-/2018/811402/xu-the-gia-hoa-dan-so-o-nuoc-ta-va-van-de-cham-soc-suc-khoe%2C-su-dung-lao-dong-nguoi-cao-tuoi.aspx (Accessed on March 20th, 2021) (in Vietnamese).
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