Vietnam Economy Prospect in 2021
Main Article Content
Abstract
The paper forcasts the economic growth of Vietnam economy in 2021, based on a quantitative model reflecting the macroeconomic fundamentals and accounting for the international economic integration for the past decades. The method of Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression with Time Varying Coefficients (TVC-BSVAR) is employed on a time-series data sample on the integration and development of Vietnam within the world economy. The analysis results provide three scenarios of GDP growth rate in 2021, including 3.48% (pessimistic scenario), 5.49% (baseline scenario), 6.90% (optimistic scenario). The probability of each scenario depends on the foreign direct investment absorption capacity and the prospect of world economy.
Keywords:
Economic forecasting, Vector Autoregression, macroeconomic fundamentals.
References
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[14] Bhattacharya, R., “Inflation dynamics and monetary policy transmission in Vietnam and emerging Asia”, Journal of Asian Economics, 34 (2014), 16-26.
[15] Cogley, T., & Sargent, T. J., “Evolving post-world war II US inflation dynamics”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 16 (2001), 331-373.
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