Is Population Growth a Requisite for National Economic Growth? A Revisit of the Debate Using Panel Data Analysis
Main Article Content
Abstract
This current paper reassesses the controversial discourse regarding the impact of population growth on national economies using data from 66 countries that constitute 85 per cent of the global population. The panel data spans through the periods 2001-2019. The variables include GDP per capita (regressand), aggregate population, fertility rate, life expectancy, crude death rate and gross fixed capital formation. The fixed effects estimator and panel causality tests were utilized to estimate the data. Findings from the fixed effects model suggests that GDP per capita is adversely and significantly predicted by the aggregate population and fertility rate whereas, gross fixed capital formation and crude death rate exert a positive significant effect on the regressand. Surprisingly, the panel causality result advances that there is a two-way causality between the regressand and the regressors. Following the findings, it is recommended that pragmatic policy measures that will control the rising fertility rate, encourage skill acquisition programs and raise employment generation for the rising population will be a welcome development.
Keywords:
Economic growth, aggregate population, panel data, fixed effects model, causality analysis. *
References
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panel data perspective. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applied Statistics, 1, 398-406. ISSN 2668-6309. 10.2478/icas-2019-0034.
Peter, A., & Bakari, I. H. (2018). Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach (1980 -2015). Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(4), 412-427.
Rashidu, A. M., Golam, H., Ripter, H., Nuru, I. & La, R. (2013). Impact of Life Expectancy on Economics Growth and Health Care Expenditures in Bangladesh. Universal Journal of Public Health, 1(4), 180-186. DOI: 10.13189/ujph.2013.010405
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Sayef, B. & Malek, W. (2022). Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Arab Countries. MPRA Paper No. 113077. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113077/
Shen, S. C. & Shen, J. M. (2021). Research on the Influence of population structure on
Economic Growth: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Model. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 9, 941-946. https://doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2021.95064.
Sibe, J. P., Chiatchoua, C. & Megne, M. N. (2016). The long-run relationship between population growth and economic growth: a panel data analysis of 30 of the most populated countries of the world. Analisis Economico, XXXI, 77(2016), 205-218. ISSN: 0185-3937.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
Thornton, J. (2001). “Population growth and economic growth: Long-run evidence from Latin America”. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468.
Ukpolo, V. (2002). Population growth and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Developing Societies, 18(4), 315-329.
Wong, H. T. & Fumitaka, F. (2005). The relationship between population and economic growth in Asian Economies. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(3), 314-330.
Yang, Y, Zheng, R. & Zhao, L. (2021). Population aging, health investment and economic growth: Based on a cross-country panel data analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(1801), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041801.
Aghion, P., Howitt, P., & Murtin, F. (2010). The relationship between health and growth: when Lucas meets Nelson-Phelps (No. w15813). National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w15813/w15813.pdf
Akinbode, S. O., Okeowo, K. S. & Azeez, A. T. (2017). The Dynamics of population and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 5(3), 79-86. URL:https://doi.org/10.15640/jeds.v5n3a9
Akintunde, T. S., Olomola, P. O. & Oladeji, S. I. (2013). Population dynamics and economic growth in Sub-Sahara Africa. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(14), -158.
Barro, R. J. (2013). Health and economic growth. Ann Econ Finance, 14(2):329–366
Chowdbhury, M. N. M. & Hossain, M. M. (2018). Population growth and economic development in Bangladesh: Revisited Malthus. Retrieved from, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1812/1812.09393.pdf
Crenshaw, E. M., Ameen, A. Z. & Christenson, M. (1997). Population dynamics and economic development: Age-specific population growth rates and economic growth in developing countries, 1965 to 1990. American Sociological Review, 62(6),
974-984.
Dao, M. Q. (2012). Population and economic growth in developing countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6-17.
Dawson, P. J., & Tiffin, R. (1998). Is there a long-run relationship between population growth and living standards? The case of India. Journal of Development Studies, 34(5), 149-156.
Dudley, K. (1996). ‘Demographic Transition Theory’. Population Studies, 50(3), 361-387.
Ecevit, E. (2013). The impact of life expectancy on economic growth: panel cointegration and causality analysis for OECD countries. Int J Soc Sci, 16(1), 1–14
Edwin, D. & Shajehan, H. (2001). Determinants of Economic Growth (Panel Data Approach). Working Paper 01/04. Retrieved from https:citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.112.2218&rep=1&type=pdf.
Hakeem, A. O., Emecheta, C. & Ngwudiobu, I. M. (2016). Population dynamics and economics growth in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 7(15), 16-26.
Headey, D. D. & Hodge, A. (2009). The effect of population growth on economic growth: A meta-regression analysis of the macroeconomic literature. Population and Development Review, 35(2), 48-221.
Hiroyuki, T., Ni, L. & Sereyyuth, K. (2021). A revisit to effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth in Asia. MPRA Paper No. 110609. Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/110609/.
Karim, A. & Amin, S. B. (2018). The impact of population growth on the Economic Growth of Selected South Asian Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Economics, 8(3), 17-34.
Kelley, A. C. (1998). Economic consequences of population change in the Third World. Journal of Economic Literature, 26(4), 728-1685.
Kelley, A. & Schmidt, R. (1995). “Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change” Demography, 32, 543-555.
Kremer, M. (1993). ‘Population growth and technological change: One million B. C. to 1990’. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681-716.
Kuznets, S. (1960). “Population change and aggregate output”, in G. Roberts (ed.), Demographic and economic change in developed countries, NBER, Washington DC.
Kuznets, S. (1960). ‘Population change and aggregate output’. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, 324-351. Columbia University Press.
Li, H. & Zhang, J. (2007). Do high birth rates hamper economic growth? Review of Economics and Statistics, 30, 67-80.
Lorentzen, P., McMillan, J. & Wacziarg, R. (2008). Death and development. Journal of Economic Growth, 13:81–124.
Maestas, N, Mullen, K. J. & Powell, D. (2016). The effect of population aging on economic growth, the labour force and productivity. RAND Labour and Population. Working paper 1063. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/WR1000/WR1063-1/RAND_WR1063-1.pdf
Mahmoudinia, D., Kondelajib, M. H. H. & Jafaric, S. (2020). The causality relationship between population growth, economic growth and capital stock in OIC countries and its policy Aspects. International Journal of Economics and Politics, 1(2), 117-132.
Maket, I. J. (2021). Population dynamics and economic growth in Kenya. Hungarian Statistical Review, 4(2), 18-33. DOI: 10.35618/hsr2021.02.en018. https://www.ksh.hu/statszemle_archive/en/2021/2021_02/2021_02_018.pdf
Minh, O. D. (2012). Population growth and development in developing countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 2(1), 6-17.
OECD/FAO (2017), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2017-2026. OECD Publishing, Parish. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2017-en Retrieved from ps:reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/5117051e.pdf
Ogbuabor, J. E., Udo, G. C. & Onuigbo, F. N. (2018). Population growth and economic development in Nigeria. Saudi Journal of Business and Management (SJBMS), 3(12), 1348-1354. ISSN 2415-6663 (Print). Scholars Middle East Publishers ISSN 2415-6671 (Online)
Ogunleye, O. O., Owolabi, O. A., Sanyaolu, O. A. & Lawal, O. O. (2017). Human capital development and economic growth in Nigeria. Journal of Business Management, 3(8), 17–37, http://www.ijrdo.org/International-Journal-of-Rese
Prada, E. & Cimpoeru, S. (2019). The impact of human capital on economic growth in EU-28: A
panel data perspective. Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Applied Statistics, 1, 398-406. ISSN 2668-6309. 10.2478/icas-2019-0034.
Peter, A., & Bakari, I. H. (2018). Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth in Africa: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach (1980 -2015). Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 6(4), 412-427.
Rashidu, A. M., Golam, H., Ripter, H., Nuru, I. & La, R. (2013). Impact of Life Expectancy on Economics Growth and Health Care Expenditures in Bangladesh. Universal Journal of Public Health, 1(4), 180-186. DOI: 10.13189/ujph.2013.010405
Rocco, L., Fumagalli, E., Mirelman, A. J. & Suhrcke, M. (2021). Mortality, morbidity and economic growth. PloS ONE, 16(5); e0251424. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251424
Sayef, B. & Malek, W. (2022). Causality between Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Arab Countries. MPRA Paper No. 113077. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/113077/
Shen, S. C. & Shen, J. M. (2021). Research on the Influence of population structure on
Economic Growth: Based on the Provincial Panel Data Model. Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics, 9, 941-946. https://doi.org/10.4236/jamp.2021.95064.
Sibe, J. P., Chiatchoua, C. & Megne, M. N. (2016). The long-run relationship between population growth and economic growth: a panel data analysis of 30 of the most populated countries of the world. Analisis Economico, XXXI, 77(2016), 205-218. ISSN: 0185-3937.
Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70, 65-94.
Thornton, J. (2001). “Population growth and economic growth: Long-run evidence from Latin America”. Southern Economic Journal, 68(2), 464-468.
Ukpolo, V. (2002). Population growth and economic growth in Africa. Journal of Developing Societies, 18(4), 315-329.
Wong, H. T. & Fumitaka, F. (2005). The relationship between population and economic growth in Asian Economies. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 22(3), 314-330.
Yang, Y, Zheng, R. & Zhao, L. (2021). Population aging, health investment and economic growth: Based on a cross-country panel data analysis. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(1801), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041801.