Về khả năng ứng dụng sản phẩm dự báo mưa hạn mùa của mô hình NCEP-CFS cho khu vực Việt Nam
Main Article Content
Abstract
Tóm tắt. Trong nghiên cứu này, sản phẩm mưa dự báo lại (Hindcast) giai đoạn 1982-2009 và dự báo nghiệp vụ (Operational) giai đoạn 2012-2014 của mô hình NCEP-CFS (National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate System Forecast) đã được sử dụng để đánh giá khả năng dự báo mùa tổng lượng mưa tháng trên toàn lãnh thổ Việt Nam với hạn dự báo đến 6 tháng. Dự báo mưa của CFS đã được đánh giá trên cơ sở so sánh với số liệu mưa phân tích trên lưới (GPCC) độ phân giải 0.5 x 0.5 độ và với số liệu quan trắc từ mạng lưới trạm khí tượng Việt Nam. Kết quả nhận được cho thấy CFS cho dự báo lượng mưa tháng khá phù hợp với quan trắc trên các vùng khí hậu phía Bắc và Nam Bộ Việt Nam trong khi đó lại cho sai số khá lớn trên các vùng khí hậu Trung Bộ và Tây Nguyên. Sai số dự báo biến động ít theo hạn dự báo nhưng lại khác biệt đáng kể giữa các tháng được dự báo.
Keywords:
Từ khóa: Dự báo mùa, Dự báo mưa.
References
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[25] Saha S., Nadiga S., Thiaw C., Wang J., Wang W., Zhang Q., Van den Dool H. M., Pan H. L., Moorthi S., Benringer D., Stokes D., Pena M., Lord S., White G., Ebisuzaki W., Peng P., and Xie P, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate, Volume 19, pp 34833517
[26] Saha S, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-Ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug Van Den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, and Mitch Goldberg, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057.
[27] Saha S, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Malaquías Peña Mendez, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Emily Becker, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
[28] Schneider Udo, Andreas Becker, Peter Finger, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Markus Ziese, Bruno Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol (2014) 115:15–40
[29] Jolliffe Ian T. and David B. Stephenson, 2003: Forecast Verification A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, 240p.
[2] Siegmund, J., J. Bliefernicht, P. Laux, and H. Kunstmann, 2015: Toward a seasonal precipitation prediction system for West Africa: Performance of CFSv2 and high-resolution dynamical downscaling, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JD022692.
[3] Shukla J, Mooley DA, 1987: Empirical prediction of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. Mon Weather Rev 115:695–703
[4] Kumar Ashok, D. S. Pai, J. V. Singh, Ranjeet Singh, D. R. Sikka, 2012: Statistical Models for Long-Range Forecasting of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India Using Step Wise Regression and Neural Network. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2, 322-336
[5] Sahai AK, Grimm AM, Satyan V, Pant GB, 2003: Long-lead prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall from global SST evolution. Clim Dyn 20:855–863
[6] Annamalai H., J. Potemra, R. Murtugudde, and J. P. McCreary, 2005: Effect of preconditioning on the extreme climate events in the tropical Indian Ocean. Journal of Climate, vol. 18, no. 17, pp. 3450–3469.
[7] Duffy P. B., R. W. Arritt, J. Coquard et al., 2006: Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. Journal of Climate, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 873–895
[8] Kloizbachand P.J., W.M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Weather and Forecasting, vol. 18, pp. 1190–1128.
[9] Krishnamurti T. N., L. Stefanova, A. Chakraborty et al., 2002: Sea- sonal forecasts of precipitation anomalies for North American and Asian Monsoons. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Series 2, vol. 80, no. 6, pp. 1415–1426.
[10] Pattanaik D.R., Biswajit Mukhopadhyay, Arun Kumar, 2012: Monthly Forecast of Indian Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Based on NCEP’s Coupled Forecast System. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 2012, 2, 479-491
[11] Jing-Jia Luo, Sebastien Masson, Swadhin Behera, Satoru Shingu, and Toshio Yamagata, 2005: Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts. J. Climate, 18, 4474–4497.
[12] Kim Hye-Mi, Peter J. Webster, Judith A. Curry, 2012: Seasonal prediction skill of ECMWF System 4 and NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast for the Northern Hemisphere Winter. Clim Dyn , DOI 10.1007/s00382-012-1364-6
[13] Doblas-Reyes F. J., R. Hagedorn, and T. N. Palmer, 2006: Develop- ments in dynamical seasonal forecasting relevant to agricultural management. Climate Research, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 19–26.
[14] Pattanaik D. R., Arun Kumar, 2009: Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system. Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0648-y
[15] Phan Van Tan, Hiep Van Nguyen, Long Trinh Tuan, Trung Nguyen Quang, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Patrick Laux, and Thanh Nguyen Xuan, 2014: Seasonal Prediction of Surface Air Temperature across Vietnam Using the Regional Climate Model Version 4.2 (RegCM4.2). Advances in Meteorology. Volume 2014, Article ID 245104, 13 pages. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/245104
[16] Chu Jung-Lien, Hongwen Kang, Chi-Yung Tam, Chung-Kyu Park, and Cheng-Ta Chen, 2008: Seasonal forecast for local precipitation over northern Taiwan using statistical downscaling. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 113, D12118, doi:10.1029/2007JD009424
[17] Sohn, S.-J., Y.-M. Min, J.-Y. Lee, C.-Y. Tam, I.-S. Kang, B. Wang, J.-B. Ahn, and T. Yamagata (2012), Assessment of the long-lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983–2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D04102, doi:10.1029/2011JD016308
[18] Kyong-Hee An, Chi-Yung Tam, and Chung-Kyu Park, 2009: Improving the Northeast Asian Monsoon Simulation: Remote Impact of Tropical Heating Bias Correction. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 797–803.
[19] Wang B., J. Y. Lee, I. S. Kang, J. Shukla, C. K. Park, A. Kumar, J. Schemn, S. Cocke, J. S. Kug, J. J. Luo, T. Zhou, B. Wang, X. Fu, W. T. Yun, O. Alves, E. K. Jin, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman, T. N. Krishnamurti, N. C. Lau, W. Lau, P. Liu, P. Pegion, T. Rosati, S. Schubert, W. Stern, M. Suarez and T. Yamagata, 2008: Advance and Prospects of Seasonal Prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-Model Ensemble Retrospective Seasonal Prediction (1980-2004). Climate Dynamics, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 93-117. doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0
[20] Krishnan R., S. Sundaram, P. Swapna, V. Kumar, D. C. Ayantika and M. Mujumdar, 2010: Crucial Role of Ocean-At- mosphere Coupling on the Indian Monsoon Anomalous Response during Dipole Events. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 37, No. 1-2, pp. 1-17. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0830-2
[21] Phan Van Tan, Ngo-Duc T, Ho TMH, 2009: Seasonal and interannual variations of surface climate elements over Vietnam. Journal of Climate Research, Vol. 40, No 1, pp 49-60
[22] Nguyễn Đức Ngữ, Nguyễn Trọng Hiệu, 2013: Khí hậu và Tài nguyên Khí hậu Việt Nam. NXB Khoa học Kỹ Thuật, Hà Nội, 296tr.
[23] Nguyễn Duy Chinh, Trần Việt Liễn, Nguyễn Văn Thắng, Trương Đức Trí, Phan Văn Tân, Nguyễn Đức Hậu, Hoàng Đức Cường, Lê Xuân Cầu, 2003: Nghiên cứu thực nghiệm dự báo khí hậu ở Việt Nam, Bộ TN&MT, Báo cáo Tổng kết đề tài
[24] Phan Van Tan, Long Trinh-Tuan, Hai Bui-Hoang, Chanh Kieu, 2015: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the coastal region of Vietnam using RegCM4.2. Climate Research, Vol. 62: 115-129, doi: 10.3354/cr01267
[25] Saha S., Nadiga S., Thiaw C., Wang J., Wang W., Zhang Q., Van den Dool H. M., Pan H. L., Moorthi S., Benringer D., Stokes D., Pena M., Lord S., White G., Ebisuzaki W., Peng P., and Xie P, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. Journal of Climate, Volume 19, pp 34833517
[26] Saha S, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-Ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug Van Den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, and Mitch Goldberg, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015–1057.
[27] Saha S, Shrinivas Moorthi, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, David Behringer, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Mark Iredell, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Malaquías Peña Mendez, Huug van den Dool, Qin Zhang, Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Emily Becker, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2. J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
[28] Schneider Udo, Andreas Becker, Peter Finger, Anja Meyer-Christoffer, Markus Ziese, Bruno Rudolf, 2014: GPCC's new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol (2014) 115:15–40
[29] Jolliffe Ian T. and David B. Stephenson, 2003: Forecast Verification A Practitioner’s Guide in Atmospheric Science. John Wiley & Sons Ltd, The Atrium, Southern Gate, Chichester, West Sussex PO19 8SQ, England, 240p.