Nguyen Tien Toan, Cong Thanh, Pham Thi Phuong, Vu Tuan Anh

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Abstract: In this study, we assessed the predictibility of precipitation due to cold air associated with the easterly wind at the high level using WRF model with 2 days lead time for the Mid-Central Vietnam region. The results show that the 24-hour forecasts lead time should use medium rainfall threshold (16-50 mm/day) and heavy rain (50-100 mm/day) for quantitative precipitation forecast and rainfall area reference; the 48-hour forecast lead time should choose moderate rainfall threshold. For threshold above 100 mm, the results of all forecast lead time are not good and almost unpredictable. The results of this study may help gain more information for forecasting rainfall due to cold air associated easterly wind at the high level for the Mid-Central Vietnam region.

Keywords: WRF model, heavy rainfall over mid-central Vietnam.


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