Contructing Climate Change Scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City

Abstract

Abstract: This article presents the results of constructing climate change scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) based on the climate change scenarios of Vietnam published in 2016 by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Four high-resolution regional climate models including CCAM, clWRF, PRECIS, and RegCM were used to downscale the results of global climate models. The results show that the annual average temperature in HCMC tends to increase in the future compared to the baseline period 1986 - 2005, the increase depends on each RCP scenario. By the end of the century, the annual average temperature in HCMC has an increase of about 1.7÷1.9°C under the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.2÷3.6°C under RCP8.5. Meanwhile, annual rainfall in HCMC tends to increase in most periods under both of RCP scenarios. By the end of the century, annual rainfall in HCMC increases from 15% to 25% in the RCP4.5 and 20-25% in the RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Annual rainfall in coastal areas increaseslarger than in inland areas.

Keywords: Climate change scenarios, Ho Chi Minh City.

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