Implementation of Tropical Cyclone Detection Scheme to CCAM model for Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Prediction over the Vietnam East Sea
Main Article Content
Abstract
This study has selected a vortex tracking algorithm scheme for simulating the activity of tropical cyclone in the Vietnam East Sea by CCAM model. The results show that the CCAM model is able to simulate well the large scale in each month through a reasonable description of the movement rules of the tropical cyclone in the study area. Then, this vortex tracking algorithm scheme was applied to test the seasonal forecast with the outputs of the CCAM model with a resolution of 20km for September 2018 and October 2018. The obtaining results are forecasted quite closely in terms of both quantity and high potential occurrence areas of the tropical cyclone when compared with reality. In particular, for October 2018, although the activity area of the tropical cyclone - YUTU is significantly different from the multi-year average activity position, the seasonal forecast results are obtained from the 120 members of the CCAM model captured this difference. This suggests that it is possible to apply the CCAM model in combination with the selected vortex tracking algorithm scheme for the seasonal forecast of the tropical cyclone over the Vietnam East Sea region in the future.
Keywords:
Vortex tracking algorithm scheme, Tropical storm, Tropical cyclone, The Vietnam East Sea.
References
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[30] F. Schmidt, Variable fine mesh in spectral global model, Beitraege zur Physik der Atmosphaere. 50 (1977) 211-217.
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[2] J.C.L. Chan, J.E. Shi, K.S. Liu, Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific,Weather Forecast 16 (2001) 491-498.
[3] S.J. Camargo, A.G. Barnston, Experimental seasonal dynamical forecasts of tropical cyclone activity at IRI, Weather Forecasting 24 (2009) 472-491.
[4] P.J. Klotzbach, W.M. Gray, Twenty-five years of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts (1984−2008), Geophys Res Lett. 36: L09711 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037580.
[5] G.A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, H. Wang, G. Villarini and others, Statistical-dynamical predictions of seasonal North Atlantic hurricane activity, Mon Weather Rev. 139 (2011) 1070-1082.
[6] M.M. Lu, C.T. Lee, B. Wang, Seasonal prediction of accumulated tropical cyclone kinetic energy around Taiwan and the sources of the predictability, Int J Climatol. 33 (2013) 2846-285.
[7] P.J. Klotzbach, Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August, Weather Forecast 22 (2007) 937-949.
[8] F. Vitart, A. Leroy, M.C. Wheeler, A comparison of dynamical and statistical predictions of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere, Mon Weather Rev. 138 (2010) 3671-3682.
[9] A.Y. Yeung, J.C. Chan, Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific, Clim Dyn. 39 (2012) 783-794.
[10] S.J. Camargo SJ, A.G. Barnston, P.J. Klotzbach, C.W. Landsea, Seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, WMO Bull. 56 (2007) 297-309.
[11] J.C.L. Chan, J.E. Shi, C.M. Lam, Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea, Wea Forecast. 13 (1998) 997-1004.
[12] F. Vitart, T.N. Stockdale, Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations, Mon Weather Rev. 129 (2001) 2521-253.
[13] F. Vitart, J.L. Anderson, W.F. Stern, Simulation of interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations, J Clim. 10 (1997) 745-76.
[14] S. Yokoi, Y.N. Takayabu, J.C.L Chan, Tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific simulated in mediumresolution coupled general circulation models, Clim Dyn. 33 (2009) 665-683.
[15] W.A. Landman, A. Seth, S.J. Camargo, The effect of regional climate model domain choice on the simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in the Southwestern Indian Ocean, J Clim. 18 (2005) 1263-1274.
[16] Bengtsson, L. H. Bottger, and M. Kanamitsu, Simulation of hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model, Tellus. 34 (1982) 440-457.
[17] Bengtsson, M. Botzet, and M. Esch, Hurricane-type vortices in a general circulation model, Tellus. 47A (1995) 175-196.
[18] K. Walsh Objective Detection of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Analyses, Mon. Wea. Rev. 125 (1997) 1767-1779.
[19] K. Walsh., and I. G. Watterson, Tropical Cyclone-like Vortices in a Limited Area Model: Comparison with Observed Climatology, J. Climate. 10 (1997) 2204-2259.
[20] K.C. Nguyen, K.J.E. Walsh, Interannual, decadal, and transient greenhouse simulation of tropical cyclone-like vortices in a regional climate model of the South Pacific, J Clim 14 (2001) 3043-3054.
[21] S.J. Camargo and S. E. Zebiak, Improving the Detection and Tracking of Tropical Cyclones in Atmospheric General Circulation Models, Wea. Forecasting 17 (2002) 1152-1162.
[22] J.L. McGregor, C-CAM: Geometric aspects and dynamical formulation. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper, No. 70 (2005).
[23] J.L. McGregor and M.R. Dix, The CSIRO conformal-cubic atmospheric GCM. In: Hodnett PF (ed) IUTAM symposium on advances in mathematical modelling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Kluwer, Dordrecht (2001) 197-202.
[24] J.L. McGregor and M.R. Dix, An updated description of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model. In: Hamilton K, Ohfuchi W(eds) High resolution simulation of the atmosphere and ocean, Springer, New York, (2008) 51-76.
[25] M.D. Schwarzkopf and V. Ramaswamy, Radiative effects of CH4, N2O, halocarbons and the foreign-broadened H2O continuum: a GCM experiment, J Geophys Res. 104 (1999) 9467-9488.
[26] L.D. Rotstayn, A physically based scheme for the treatment of stratiform clouds and precipitation in large-scale models. I: description and evaluation of the microphysical processes, Q J R Meteorol Soc. 123 (1997) 1227-1282.
[27] L.D. Rotstayn and Lohmann U, Simulation of the tropospheric sulfur cycle in a global model with a physically based cloud scheme, J Geo Res. 27 (2002).
[28] J.L. McGregor, H.B. Gordon, I.G. Watterson, M.R. Dix and L.D. Rotstayn, The CSIRO 9-level atmospheric general circulation model. CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research Technical Paper, No. 26 (1993).
[29] J.L. McGregor, A new convection scheme using a simple clo-sure. In: current issues in the parameterization of convection, BMRC Res Rep. 93 (2003) 33-36.
[30] F. Schmidt, Variable fine mesh in spectral global model, Beitraege zur Physik der Atmosphaere. 50 (1977) 211-217.
[31] P.V. Tan, T. T. Long, B. H. Hai, and C. Kieu, Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the coastal region of Vietnam using RegCM4.2, Clim. Res. 62 (2015) 115-129. https://doi.org/10. 3354/cr01267.