Climate Analog Locations of Cities and Disappearing Climate in Viet Nam
Main Article Content
Abstract
The study defined climate analog locations of cities and disappearing climate in Viet Nam at the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenarios. Outputs from six regional climate experiments conducted under the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment – Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) were used, covering the domain of 15S - 27N, 89.5E - 146.5E. Results showed the general southward tendency of climate analog locations from the original sites. The climate distances between the reference cities and their analog locations were greater under the RCP8.5 than those under the RCP4.5. The analog locations of Ha Noi, Hai Phong and Da Nang were closer to the original cities than those of Ho Chi Minh and Can Tho. Under the RCP8.5, 2.39% of land in Viet Nam, mainly located in some small parts of the Central Highlands and Southern Viet Nam, was projected by the ensemble (ENS) experiment to experience disappearing climate at the end of the 21st century.
Keywords:
Climate analog, disappearing climate, regional climate model, Viet Nam
References
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[7] N.D. Ngu, N.T. Hieu, Climate Change and its impact in Viet Nam in the past 100 years, Nature and People, Reality Publishing, Ha Noi, 1991 (in Vietnamese).
[8] N.D. Ngu, N.T. Hieu, Climate and Vietnamese climate resources, Agriculture Publishing, Ha Noi, 2004 (in Vietnamese).
[9] N.V. Lanh, Some results on climate change in Viet Nam, Journal of Meteorology Hydrology 560, 33 (2007) (in Vietnamese).
[10] T.V. Lien, H.D. Cuong, T.A. Son, Climate scenario building in climatic regions in Viet Nam for the period 2010 – 2100, Journal of Meteorology Hydrology (2007) (in Vietnamese).
[11] N.D. Ngu, Climate Change, Science and Technique Publishing, Ha Noi, 2008 (in Vietnamese).
[12] T. Phan-Van, T. Ngo-Duc, T.M.H. Ho, Seasonal and interannual variations of surface climate elements over Viet Nam, Climate Research 40(1) (2009) 49-60. https://doi.org/ 10.3354/cr00824.
[13] T. M. H. Ho, V. T. Phan, N. Q. Le, and Q. Nguyen, Extreme climatic events over Viet Nam from observational data and RegCM3 projections, Climate Research 49(2) (2011) 87-100. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01021.
[14] K. Mai-Van, M.G. Redmond, C. McSweeney, T. Thuc, Evaluation of dynamically downscaled ensemble climate simulations for Viet Nam, International Journal of Climatology 34(7) (2014) 2450-2463. https:// doi.org/10.1002/joc.3851.
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[16] T. Ngo-Duc, C. Kieu, M. Thatcher, D. Nguyen-Le, T. Phan-Van, Climate projections for Viet Nam based on regional climate models, Climate Research 60(3) (2014) 199-213. https://doi.org/ 10.3354/cr01234.
[17] T. Ngo-Duc, T.T. Fredolin, S. Jerasorn, C. Faye et al., Performance evaluation of RegCM4 in simulating extreme rainfall and temperature indices over the CORDEX-Southeast Asia region, International Journal of Climatology 37(3) (2017) 1634-1647. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4803.
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[19] L. Trinh-Tuan, J. Matsumoto, F.T. Tangang, L. Juneng, F. Cruz, G. Narisma et al., Application of Quantile Mapping Bias Correction for Mid-Future Precipitation Projections over Viet Nam, SOLA 15 (2019) 1-6. https://doi.org/10. 2151/sola. 2019-001.
[20] T. Thuc, N.V. Thang, H.T.L. Huong, M.V. Khiem, N.X. Hien, D.H. Phong, Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Ha Noi, 2009.
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[22] T. Thuc, N.V. Thang, H.T.L. Huong, M.V. Khiem, N.X. Hien, D.H. Phong, Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Viet Nam, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Ha Noi, 2016.