Quantifying the Direct Impacts of Climate Change on Flood Damage for Rice in Hung Nguyen District, Nghe An Province
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A deep understanding of current and projected flood risk is need for effective flood risk management and better adaptation planning under climate change. This research aims to investigate the direct impacts of climate change on flood damage to rice under changes in water depth and flood extent induced by rainfall increase and sea-level rise. The Hung Nguyen district, a rural area in Nghe An province, the Ca river basin was selected as a case study. A rice-specific damage tool is employed to evaluate changes in flood damage to rice under climate change scenarios projected for the study area. We found that the rice damage of the historical flood event in October 2010 in the study area is approximately 34 billion VND, and the lowland area in the center of the study area is the highest risk region. Based on an ensemble of climate projections for the RCP4.5 scenario as recommended by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment for the study area, the current damage projects to increase by 61% under a 0.5 – 1.5 m flood depth increase. The results indicate that the damage increase due to climate change by approximately 20.9 billion VND under an RCP4.5 scenario without further adaptation. The commune-level flood damage maps are vital for better adaptation and mitigation of the negative impacts of flooding on rice.
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