Study of Biascorrection Methods for Seasonal Rainfall Forecast over Vietnam
Main Article Content
Abstract
Abstract: This study presents some results about bias correction for seasonal rainfall forecast from the regional spectral model (RSM), following two methods are quantile-quantile with an approximate gamma function (QM-G), and Bayesian joint probability (BJP). RSM ran forecast for the period 1982-2014, with data input from global model CFS, and lead time up to five months. The results show that the BJP made the correlation between rainfall forecast and observation increased significantly, the coefficient correlation after corrected is about 0.77 in all three lead times. The bias and error after did correctly by BJP were reduced away clearly, the differencesare almost notin all of three lead times, the error in months from April to October is the smallest and about 20-50%, therein the Northwest climate gives the smallest error. The correction with QM-G did not improve the correlation and bias, which is also made the model losing systematic ofthe error.
Keywords: Rain correction, seasonal forecast, Vietnam region, RSM.
References:
Keywords:
Rain correction, seasonal forecast, Vietnam region, RSM.
References
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[3] Nguyễn Đức Ngữ, Nguyễn Trọng Hiệu, 2013: Khí hậu và Tài nguyên Khí hậu Việt Nam, NXB Khoa học Kỹ thuật Hà Nội, 296tr.
[4] Saha, S., S. Moorthi, X. Wu, J. Wang, S. Nadiga, P. Tripp, D. Behringer, Y. Hou, H. Chuang, M. Iredell, M. Ek, J. Meng, R. Yang, M.P. Mendez, H. van den Dool, Q. Zhang, W. Wang, M. Chen, and E. Becker, 2014: The NCEP climate forecast system version 2, Journal of Climate, 27, 2185–2208.
[5] Molteni, F., Stockdale, T., Balmaseda, M., Balsamo, G., Buizza, R., Ferranti, L., Magnusson, L., Mogensen, K., Palmer, T. and Vitart, F., 2011: The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (System 4), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,656, 49.
[6] Marshall, A.G., Hudson, D., Wheeler, M.C., Alves, O., Hendon, H.H., Pook, M.J. and Risbey, J.S., 2014: Intra-seasonal drivers of extreme heat over Australia in observations and POAMA-2, Climate dynamics, 43, 1915-1937.
[7] Flato, Gregory, et al., 2013: Evaluation of climate models, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 5, 741-866.
[8] Piani, C., Haerter, J. O., and Coppola, E., 2010: Statistical bias correction for daily precipitation in regional climate models over Europe, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99, 187-192.
[9] Haugen, J.E., Engen-Skaugen, T., Bremnes, J.B. and Gudmundsson, L., 2012: Technical note: Downscaling RCM precipitation to the station scale using statistical transformations—A comparison of methods, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 3383-3390.
[10] Lafon, T., Dadson, S., Buys, G. and Prudhomme, C., 2013: Bias correction of daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model: a comparison of methods. International Journal of Climatology, 33, 1367-1381.
[11] Bennett, J.C., Grose, M.R., Corney, S.P., White, C.J., Holz, G.K., Katzfey, J.J., Post, D.A. and Bindoff, N.L., 2014: Performance of an empirical bias‐correction of a high‐resolution climate dataset. International Journal of Climatology, 34, 2189-2204.
[12] Wang, Q.J., Robertson, D.E. and Chiew, F.H.S., 2009: A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites, Water Resources Research, 45.
[13] Zhao, T., Bennett, J.C., Wang, Q.J., Schepen, A., Wood, A.W., Robertson, D.E. and Ramos, M.H.: 2017, How Suitable is Quantile Mapping For Postprocessing GCM Precipitation Forecasts?, Journal of Climate, 30, 3185-3196.
[14] Schepen, A., Zhao, T., Wang, Q.J. and Robertson, D.E., 2018: A Bayesian modelling method for post-processing daily sub-seasonal to seasonal rainfall forecasts from global climate models and evaluation for 12 Australian catchments, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22, 1615.
[15] Nguyễn Thị Hạnh, Vũ Thanh Hằng, Phan Văn Tân, 2016: Dự báo mưa hạn mùa bằng mô hình clWRF: Độ nhạy của các sơ đồ tham số hoá đối lưu, Tạp chí Khoa học ĐHQGHN: Các Khoa học Trái đất và Môi trường, 32, 25-33.
[16] Phan-Van, T., Nguyen-Xuan, T., Van Nguyen, H., Laux, P., Pham-Thanh, H. and Ngo-Duc, T., 2018: Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam, Weather and Forecasting, 33, 615-640.
[17] Thom, H.C., 1958.: A note on the gamma distribution, Monthly Weather Review, 86, 117-122.
[18] Fang, G.H., Yang, J., Chen, Y.N. and Zammit, C., 2015: Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, p.2547.
[19] Ines, A.V., Hansen, J.W. and Robertson, A.W., 2011: Enhancing the utility of daily GCM rainfall for crop yield prediction. International Journal of Climatology, 31, 2168-2182.
[20] Yuan, F., Ma, M., Ren, L., Shen, H., Li, Y., Jiang, S., Yang, X., Zhao, C. and Kong, H., 2016. Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China, Advances in Meteorology, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2905198.