Dự báo kết quả học tập của học sinh dựa trên sự kết hợp phương pháp gần đúng Taylor và các mô hình xám
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Abstract
Mục đích của nghiên cứu này là dự báo kết quả học tập của học sinh dựa trên sự kết hợp phương pháp gần đúng Taylor với hai mô hình xám GM(1,1) và GM(2,1). Hai mô hình kết hợp T-GM(1,1) và T-GM(2,1) có thể đạt được các giá trị dự báo tối ưu nhất bằng cách tính gần đúng nhiều lần để cải thiện độ chính xác dự báo của hai mô hình xám. Ngoài ra, người nghiên cứu đã sử dụng phần mềm MATLAB để thiết kế một hộp công cụ MATLAB cho hai mô hình kết hợp này. Kết quả nghiên cứu này sẽ cung cấp thông tin rất quan trọng cho giáo viên và cán bộ quản lí giáo dục giúp cho họ tuyển chọn học sinh có quá trình học tập ổn định để bồi dưỡng học sinh giỏi, đồng thời cải thiện kết quả học tập đối với học sinh có quá trình học tập không ổn định nhằm đáp ứng các yêu cầu và mục tiêu của giáo dục.
Từ khóa: Kết quả học tập, phương pháp gần đúng Taylor, mô hình xám, hộp công cụ MATLAB, quá trình học tập.
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[5] G.D. Li, S. Masuda, M. Nagai, Predictor design using an improved grey model in control systems, International Journal of Computer Integrated Manufacturing 1 (2014) 1.
[6] H.W. Chen, N.B. Chang, Prediction analysis of solid waste generation based on grey fuzzy dynamic modeling, Resources, conservation and Recycling 29 (2000) 1.
[7] S.R. Hui, F. Yang, Z.Z. Li, Q. Liu, J.G. Dong, Application of Grey System Theory to Forecast The Growth of Larch, International Journal of Information and Systems Sciences 5 (2009) 522.
[8] L.J. Liang, L.F. Liu, Y. Li, The Prediction of Shanghai Service Outsourcing Talents Demand Based on Grey Model, International Journal of Business and Social Science, 5 (2014) 64.
[9] Z.X. Liu, B. Wang, K. Xu, H.J. Li, Q.D. Feng, Analysis of China's Water Shortage Model and Relevant Strategies in the Next 20 Years, Journal of Medical and Bioengineering 3 (2014) 267.
[10] G.D. Li, D. Yamaguchi, M. Nagai, Application of improved grey prediction model to short term load forecasting, Proceedings of International Conference on Electrical Engineering (2006).
[11] T.L. Tien, The deterministic grey dynamic model with convolution integral DGDMC(1,n), Applied Mathematical Modelling 33 (2009) 3498.
[12] C.I. Chen, Application of the novel nonlinear grey Bernoulli model for forecasting unemployment rate, Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 37 (2008) 278.
[13] T.L. Tien, A new grey prediction model FGM(1,1), Mathematical and Computer Modelling 49 (2009) 1416.
[14] G.D. Li, S. Masuda, M. Nagai, An Optimal Prediction Model using Taylor Approximation Method, Journal of Grey System 11 (2011) 173.
[15] W. Li, H. Xie, Geometrical Variable Weights Buffer GM(1,1) Model and Its Application in Forecasting of China’s Energy Consumption, Journal of Applied Mathematics 2014 (2014) 1.
[16] T.W. Sheu, P.H. Nguyen, P.T. Nguyen, D.H. Pham, C.P. Tsai, M. Nagai, Using the Combination of GM(1,1) and Taylor Approximation Method to Predict the Academic Achievement of Student, SOP Transactions on Applied Mathematics 1 (2014) 55.
[17] T.W. Sheu, P.H. Nguyen, P.T. Nguyen, D.H. Pham, C.P. Tsai, M. Nagai, Using GM(2,1) and T-GM(2,1) to Predict the Number of Students for Admission, Journal of Information and Computational Science 11(2014) 6085.
[18] M. Nagai, D. Yamaguchi, Grey Theory and Engineering Application Method. Tokyo: Kyoritsu Publisher, 2004.
[19] Z.J. Guo, X.Q. Song, J. Ye, A Verhulst model on time series error corrected for port throughput forecasting, Journal of the Eastern Asia society for Transportation studies 6 (2005) 881.
[20] L.D. Qu, D.X. He, R.M. Jia, Optimized Grey Model Based on Cuckoo Search Algorithm and Its Prediction Application, Journal of Information and Computational Science 11 (2014) 1419.
[21] C.N. Wang, V.T. Phan, An improvement the accuracy of grey forecasting model for cargo throughput in international commercial ports of Kaohsiung, International Journal of Business and Economics Research 3 (2014) 1.
[22] K.L. Wen, T.C. Chang, The research and development of completed GM(1,1) model toolbox using Matlab. International Journal of Computational Cognition 3 (2005) 42.
[23] T.W. Sheu, P.H. Nguyen, P.T. Nguyen, D.H. Pham, A Matlab Toolbox for AHP and LGRA-AHP to Analyze and Evaluate Factors in Making the Decision, International Journal of Kansei Information 4 (2013) 149.
[24] T.W. Sheu, P.H. Nguyen, P.T. Nguyen, D.H. Pham, C.P. Tsai, M. Nagai, A MATLAB Toolbox for Misconceptions Analysis Based on S-P Chart, Grey Relational Analysis and ROC, Transactions on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence 2 (2014) 72.
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